Seminars

If the current estimate of proposed large constellations is realized, the near-Earth space environment will see more than 50,000 new satellites added to the catalog of resident space objects (RSOs) in the coming decade. This is an order of magnitude increase from the current space object population, and poses new policy challenges as global operators seek to leverage the benefits these new satellite systems provide while also ensuring a sustainable approach to collision avoidance. Simulation is a logical choice to explore such large and complex scenarios, since the projected number of future RSOs far exceeds what can be extrapolated from data-mining historical conjunction data. This presentation will cover several ongoing efforts to improve the realism and prediction of what a future space environment might look like, and what type of monitoring and maneuvering guidelines might need to be put in place for effective space traffic management (STM). The first involves the development and validation of a high-fidelity simulation tool that utilizes high-performance computing platforms to handle the large volume of RSOs involved, and accurately models both natural forces (e.g. gravity, atmosphere, etc.) and operational maneuvers (e.g. orbit raising/de-orbit, station-keeping) for simulation runs lasting months to years. During each run, the tool continuously gathers information on conjunctions, including meta-data of the RSOs involved, so that aggregate statistics and behaviors can be examined. The tool goes beyond just propagating orbits and reporting conjunctions and has implemented run-time maneuver and avoidance capabilities so that various right-of-way rules or other maneuvering guidelines can be explored in a dynamic and evolving environment over long periods of time. The ability to monitor and generate accurate position covariance information on RSOs is key to any STM strategy, so additional research has gone into how future sensor networks can gather the observations that would be required to track the large number of future RSOs at the frequency and precision required. This includes the incorporation and optimization of both ground and space-based tracking platforms. Lastly, I will provide an overview of the Orbital Calibration 2 (OrCa2) mission, which is a 12U CubeSat mission set to launch later this fall that seeks to provide valuable experimental data to support many of the key elements of the STM simulations. The spacecraft will have a GNSS receiver, inertial sensors, an onboard imager, and special reflective panels to enable numerous experiments related to ground and space-based RSO tracking methodologies.